COT Gold Report
Neutral
No clear directional alignment detected.
Dominant Actor: Managed Money
Assessment: Speculative Expansion
Tactical Framing: Bearish Rejection regime; Long squeeze risk (trapped specs) (week 2). Value resistance approx. 4611.95.
Risk State
Price is repairing within the existing value range.
-
Value repair without forced exits:
(5,097–5,284) ✔ Still admissible
(core: 5,144–5,237, ±47)
-
Forced liquidation of trapped inventory:
() ✖ Not applicable in current regime
-
Structural repricing / regime change:
(4,436–4,495) ✖ Not admissible. Boundary breach implies regime transition
Risk & Regime Context
- Risk Profile: No clear bullish structure at this time.
- Trend Quality: The move is supported by new capital entering the market.
- Position Saturation: Speculative positioning is elevated.
- Commercial Behavior: Commercials maintain net long exposure.
- Trajectory: Market is stabilizing after a downward value repricing.
- Price Efficiency: Price response remains proportional to positioning changes.
- Volatility Regime: Price movement is directional, reflecting one-sided flow.
⚠️ Invalidation Watch
- speculative_buying_failing
- post_cutoff_value_rejected
Price Action
Weekly impulse (POC reference in red)
- Current Week (2026-03-10 to 2026-03-17): ▼ -4.46%
- Previous Week (2026-03-03 to 2026-03-10): ▲ +1.47%
- Pre-cutoff POC (2026-03-10 → 2026-03-17): 5198.5
- Post-cutoff POC (2026-03-17 → 2026-03-20 15:00 ET): 4611.95
- Friday 3PM price (2026-03-20 15:00 ET): ▼ 4516.6
- Friday vs Post-cutoff POC: -95.35 pts (▼ -2.07%)
COT Positioning & Participation
- Open Interest — 681,393 (▼ -28,469 WoW)
- Share of OI: Managed Money long 19.3% vs Swaps short 31.4%
- Concentration: Largest 8-or-less held 41.6% of shorts
- ▼ -0.1% net short concentration
- Managed Money — 131,237 long / 25,317 short → +105,920 net (19.3% of OI)
- Net increased by 3,684 contracts
- Participation ▲ 4 trader/s
- Open Interest Long %: ▲ +1.5% | Short %: ▲ +0.3% | Spreading %: ▼ 0.0%
- Swap Dealers — 34,200 long / 214,065 short → -179,865 net (31.4% of OI)
- Net increased by 2,242 contracts
- Participation ▲ 2 trader/s
- Open Interest Short %: ▲ +0.8% | Spreading %: ▼ -0.1%
- Producer / Merchant — 31,376 long / 55,168 short → -23,792 net
- Net increased by 1,469 contracts
- Participation ▲ 2 trader/s
- Open Interest Long %: ▼ 0.0% | Short %: ▼ -0.1%
- Other Reportables — 80,090 long / 22,659 short → +57,431 net
- Participation ▲ 5 trader/s
- Total participants — 324
- ▲ +7 from 317
COT Interpretation
- Price impulse decelerated versus prior week.
- Speculative net positioning expanded modestly relative to market size.
- Post-cutoff trading established acceptance significantly below prior COT inventory, indicating downward value repricing.
- Friday trade rejected post-cutoff accepted value.
- Price declined with limited speculative participation.
Built at 2026-03-20T22:00:39Z